Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 84

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Green Bay Packers 13

(3:24) 6-P.Harvin punts 50 yards to GB 34, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-K.Nixon to GB 46 for 12 yards (42-J.Pierre).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.17 EP
64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model