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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 40

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 30-J.Warren left end to GB 32 for 8 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.57 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model