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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to PIT 32, Center-42-M.Orzech. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 46 for 14 yards (81-J.Deguara).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.32 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model