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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to DEN 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.50 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model