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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 58

Denver Broncos 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback. Kick through end zone.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.14 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model