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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 18

Denver Broncos 21 – Buffalo Bills 22

What Actually Happened

(:04) 16-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +1.72 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 18, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model