Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 63

Buffalo Bills 15 – Denver Broncos 15

(12:35) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to DEN 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-M.Mims to DEN 46 for 27 yards (69-R.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.39 EP
58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model