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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 44

Denver Broncos 15 – Buffalo Bills 15

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to BUF 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.08 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP