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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 53

Denver Broncos 15 – Buffalo Bills 15

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to BUF 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.12 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -3.06 EP
KICK -1.95 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model