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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 52

Buffalo Bills 8 – Denver Broncos 15

What Actually Happened

(11:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 10-K.Shakir [99-Z.Allen].

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.86 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model