Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 77

Denver Broncos 15 – Buffalo Bills 8

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 63 yards to BUF 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-D.Harty to BUF 29 for 15 yards (0-J.Cooper). PENALTY on DEN-39-D.Washington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model