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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 30

Denver Broncos 9 – Buffalo Bills 8

What Actually Happened

(:49) 16-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.55 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model