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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 22

Denver Broncos 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 16-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.68 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model