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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 7

Denver Broncos 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton. QB pressure: S.Lawson. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass caught 8 yds. into end zone, along sideline.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.65 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 7, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model