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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to DEN 31, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 48 for 17 yards (69-R.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.70 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP