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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 46

Denver Broncos 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback. Kick through end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.89 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP