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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 18

Tennessee Titans 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.77 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model