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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 46

Tennessee Titans 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Burks (29-L.Wallace). TEN-16-T.Burks was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.44 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model