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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.60 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model