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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 30

Tennessee Titans 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(:24) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.90 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model