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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 18

Tennessee Titans 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +2.90 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model