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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 59 yards to PIT 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-C.Austin to PIT 17 for 12 yards (56-M.Rice; 40-A.Kendall).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.06 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model