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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-R.White right tackle to HOU 1 for 3 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o; 4-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +3.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 4, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model