Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 – Houston Texans 33

(7:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to HOU 22, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.64 EP
60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model