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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 9

Houston Texans 22 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(14:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model