Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 19 at the 90

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – Houston Texans 22

(3:48) 5-J.Camarda punts 49 yards to HOU 41, Center-97-Z.Triner. 3-N.Dell to HOU 48 for 7 yards (97-Z.Triner).

The Three Options

GO -3.62 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.19 EP
73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 90, worth -5.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model