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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 4-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.02 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP