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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to HOU 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model