Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 90

Houston Texans 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to TB 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-D.Thompkins pushed ob at TB 45 for 9 yards (37-D.Ross). PENALTY on HOU-37-D.Ross, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at TB 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.74 EP
62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model