Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Houston Texans 7

(14:20) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to HOU 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.45 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model