4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 89

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 11-J.Stout punts 66 yards to SEA 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 33 for 10 yards (16-T.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.54 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 89, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 46, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP