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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Baltimore Ravens 30

What Actually Happened

(12:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf (26-G.Stone).

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP