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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 13

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.59 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 13, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model