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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 38

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(7:25) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right tackle to SEA 35 for 3 yards (54-B.Wagner).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.68 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model