Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to BAL 15, Center-41-C.Stoll. 13-D.Duvernay ran ob at BAL 39 for 24 yards (44-N.Bellore). SEA-31-D.Dallas was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model