4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 15, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model