4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 1

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 1-G.Joseph 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +3.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 1, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.04 EP