4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 14-R.Wright punts 29 yards to ATL 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.81 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model