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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 13

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.11 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model