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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 14-R.Wright punts 52 yards to ATL 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 20-D.Alford to ATL 18 for no gain (20-J.Ward; 11-N.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model