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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 14

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 1-G.Joseph 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model