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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 11 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on MIN-20-J.Ward, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.73 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model