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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 62

Atlanta Falcons 11 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(:21) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 16, Center-49-L.McCullough. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 40 for 24 yards (51-D.Malone).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.39 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -2.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model