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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to KC 9, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.52 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model