Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

(6:44) 5-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to MIA 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.01 EP
59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -2.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model