4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 81

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to MIA 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.65 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 38, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP