Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Miami Dolphins 14

(12:14) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to MIA 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.93 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -2.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model