Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to KC 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel. PENALTY on KC-43-J.Cochrane, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 23. Penalty on KC-2-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model