Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

(:18) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to KC 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 12-M.Hardman to KC 32 for 10 yards (45-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.44 EP
51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -2.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model