Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to KC 9, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-M.Hardman. PENALTY on KC-6-B.Cook, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at KC 9.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.73 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model